flag Tadjiquistão Tadjiquistão: Contexto econômico

Economic Indicators

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Tajikistan is a lower-middle-income, mountainous country with an economy based mainly on mineral extraction, metal processing, agriculture and the remittances of citizens working abroad. The last twenty years saw steady growth and, although at a slower pace, the economy continued to grow even amid the global COVID-19 crisis (+4.4% in 2020 and +9.2% in 2021). The IMF estimated growth at 7.5% in 2022, as strong financial inflows have supported domestic demand and liquidity, with positive performances being recorded in the mining, agriculture, and construction sectors. Remittances slowed immediately after the beginning of the war in Ukraine but rebounded sharply in Q2, contributing to a current account surplus and boosting foreign exchange reserves (from USD 2.5 billion at end-2021 to USD 3.4 billion in October 2022, covering more than 8 months of imports). Real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 5% in 2023 as the positive impact of strong inflows diminishes. Over the medium-term, growth is expected to converge to its potential of around 4% (IMF).

The country has a structural budget deficit: in 2022, it was estimated at 1.4% of GDP (from 0.7% one year earlier) despite increased revenue from the mining sector, which was counterbalanced by reductions in VAT and income tax rates introduced at the beginning of 2022. The 2023 budget envisages a fiscal deficit of 2% of GDP, with a possible widening to 2.5% if external financing for capital expenditure materializes (IMF). Limited fiscal space is further constrained by infrastructure-related spending planned over the next decade. The debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 39.4% last year, down from 44.4% in 2021, with the main creditor being China’s Eximbank (around 40% of the total). Over the forecast horizon, the debt ratio is forecast to decline (to 40.5% this year and 39.4% in 2024). Twelve-month inflation decreased from 8% at the end-2021 to 6% in 2022, in line with the medium-term target range set by the National Bank. In fact, a strict monetary policy helped control inflationary pressures, and despite the increase in global prices of imported food and fuel during the first half of the year, a stronger somoni and the utilization of strategic food reserves have helped alleviate the rise in prices. Additionally, the robust production of local agricultural goods for internal consumption has contributed to stabilizing prices of domestic food products. The IMF forecasts an inflation rate of 7% and 6.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Overall, the private sector’s role in the economy remains limited, contributing to only 13% of formal employment and 15% of total investments (World Bank). The country’s economy is quite balanced, with agriculture representing 24% of GDP, and industry and services having a similar share (33.8% and 35.3%, respectively – World Bank).

The population is relatively poor in Tajikistan. Since independence, the country has made enormous progress in reducing poverty: between 2000 and 2021, poverty dropped from 83% to 26.5%, according to the World Bank’s latest figures. However, some 6.9 million people, including 2.8 million children, still require support due to high malnutrition rates, inadequate access to water and hygiene, disruptions to learning, exacerbated poverty and heightened protection risks. The country's GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 5,293 in 2023 by the IMF.

 
Main Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 10.4911.8212.9214.0915.36
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 8.06.55.04.54.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 1,0671,1801,2681,3601,459
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 32.633.532.932.131.4
Inflation Rate (%) n/a4.65.86.56.5
Current Account (billions USD) 1.64-0.44-0.31-0.30-0.44
Current Account (in % of GDP) 15.6-3.7-2.4-2.1-2.8

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.

Note: (e) Estimated Data


 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Tajikistan Somoni (TJS) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 ZAR 0.530.640.690.660.63

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

Main Sectors of Industry

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 42.6 20.1 37.3
Value Added (in % of GDP) 22.4 35.2 33.4
Value Added (Annual % Change) 8.0 12.8 4.3

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Socio-Demographic Indicators 2024 (e)2025 (e)2026 (e)
Unemployment Rate (%) 0.00.00.0

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - Latest available data

 

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The Active Population in Figures

201820192020
Labour Force 2,322,5532,327,4782,329,165

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 
201720182019
Total activity rate 42.84%42.14%41.47%
Men activity rate 53.43%52.87%52.28%
Women activity rate 32.23%31.41%30.66%

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

Score:
55,2/100
World Rank:
134
Regional Rank:
29

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.

 

Indicator of Political Freedom

Definition:

The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.

Ranking:
Not Free
Political Freedom:
7/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

 

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

Definition:

The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).

World Rank:
162/180

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Sources of General Economic Information

Main Online Newspapers and Portals
Tajikistan News
Tajikistan Newspapers and News Sites
Tajikistan Newspapers online
BBC News - Tajikistan
Useful Resources
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade
National Bank of Tajikistan
 
 

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Latest Update: November 2023