Sudão: Contexto econômico

Economic Indicators

Since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, the country's economic situation has been difficult as Sudan lost one-third of its territory, one-fourth of its population, 75% of its oil reserves, and more than 75% of its fiscal revenues, thus entering into recession. To avoid a loss in production and revenue, an agreement was reached in 2012 between South Sudan (which is rich in oil reserves but has weak infrastructure) and Sudan, where much infrastructure is located. As a result, South Sudan has been paying a share of its revenues to Sudan for the transportation of its oil. Following popular uprisings and the removal of Islamist President Omar al-Bashir by the military, who had been in power since 1989, a mixed "Sovereign Transitional Council" comprised of both civilians and military officials was established in 2019. However, in October 2021, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, the council's president, dissolved the interim government, expelled the pro-civilian bloc from the council, detained Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, declared a state of emergency, and suspended the constitutional charter governing power-sharing. The armed conflict that began again in April 2023 between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has inflicted severe and enduring damage on the economy, industrial infrastructure, education, and healthcare facilities. This conflict has also precipitated a collapse in domestic demand and economic activity. Amid ongoing hostilities, productive capacity has suffered significantly, leading to steep declines in both private and government consumption. Export volumes have contracted, and vital external financial support and investment have been severed. Consequently, the economy is anticipated to contract for the seventh consecutive year in 2024, by 3.5%, following an estimated 12% contraction in 2023 (data World Bank).

The economic shock and disruption to public institutions, along with budget execution challenges, have led to reduced spending and revenue. Despite the high costs associated with the conflict, spending decreased notably due to a decline in subsidies and wages. Additionally, the significant departure of Sudanese and foreign individuals engaged in commerce and business has diminished the tax base. As a result, the fiscal deficit is projected to reach 3.5% of GDP in 2024 and is anticipated to narrow in subsequent years (World Bank), supported by revenue growth following a modest recovery, assuming a decrease in conflict intensity, and backed by reconstruction endeavors. Meanwhile, the IMF estimated the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 256% in 2023, with a downward trajectory expected over the forecast horizon. Inflation surged to approximately 230% in 2023. In 2024, Sudan topped the International Rescue Committee's watchlist of countries facing worsening humanitarian crises. The currency has sharply depreciated by 94% in official markets and 125% in parallel markets since April 2023. The gap between parallel and official rates has widened significantly, reaching 17.4% as of March 2024, compared to 1.7% in March 2023. This reflects increased demand for US dollars amidst an increasingly unregulated exchange market and foreign currency shortages.

The humanitarian situation is dramatic with a large number of displaced persons and refugees. Social tensions have increased, fueled by rising prices and the lack of basic necessities. Sudan suffers from economic inequalities, high unemployment (20.8% in 2023 according to the World Bank, up from 17.6% one year earlier) and inadequate social services. Declining local crop production poses a significant threat to food availability. Direct conflict, civilian displacement, and looting are disrupting farming and harvesting operations. Moreover, the conflict exacerbates existing challenges related to shortages of agricultural machinery, soaring fuel prices, and labor scarcity. Sudan confronts severe levels of food insecurity, with 17.7 million people (37% of the population) grappling with acute food shortages. Finally, the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 4,217 in 2022 by the World Bank.

Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Sudanese Pound (SDG) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 ZAR	0.43	0.50	1.84	4.20	9.45

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: May 2024