Síria flag Síria: Contexto político-econômico

Contexto econômico da Síria

Economic Indicators

Syria has been plagued by a devastating war since 2011. According to a study published by the World Bank, the conflict caused a cumulative GDP loss of about USD 226 billion only between 2011 and 2016, about four times Syria’s pre-war GDP, and the humanitarian crisis has claimed more than 600,000 victims. Beyond the immediate impact of the conflict, the economy suffers from the compounding effects of adverse weather events, regional fragility, and macroeconomic instability. However, it is extremely difficult to assess the financial health of the country as the wartime GDP can be very unstable due to foreign aid and continued destruction. The return of several provinces under the control of the Bashar Al-Assad regime was expected to restore certain stability necessary for the start of reconstruction and economic recovery; however, the Lebanese crisis, the new sanctions imposed by the United States (extended in 2024) and the earthquake that shook the country in February 2023 resulting in a total estimated impact of USD 5.2 billion, further deteriorated the situation. The latest Syria Economic Monitor, published before the earthquake, pointed to a GDP contraction of 3.2% in 2023, following a 3.5% decline in 2022. Inflation was expected to decrease but persist at elevated levels throughout 2023, driven by exchange rate pass-through, ongoing shortages of food and fuel, and additional reductions in subsidies.

With the help of his Russian and Iranian allies, Bashar Al-Assad has regained control of most of the Syrian territory and considers himself victorious in an essentially ended war. But the country is in ruins, the destruction of the physical capital being estimated at around USD 120 billion, and the estimated loss in GDP at nearly 325 billion USD (UNESCWA). Overall, the estimates of reconstruction costs of Syria’s productive capacity range between USD 250 billion to 400 billion (Coface); nevertheless, the long-awaited reconstruction does not materialize. Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, macroeconomic conditions have significantly worsened. With almost half of the oil consumption and approximately one-third of cereal consumption imported, elevated commodity prices resulting from the Ukrainian conflict have eroded fiscal and external standings while driving inflation. The surge in prices for essential goods has prompted a more stringent fiscal policy. The already precarious situation of Syrian households has escalated, as reflected in heightened vulnerability. This rise in vulnerability has coincided with an uptick in labour force participation, particularly among workers on the fringes of the labour market, including women, youth, and the elderly, who face limited earning prospects. Meanwhile, government spending continued to be constrained by low revenues and the lack of access to financing. The current account of Syria is expected to remain firmly in deficit because of a high trade deficit, contributing to the drain of foreign exchange reserves.

On the humanitarian level, the situation is catastrophic. About 13 million people have been internally displaced and 6.7 million are officially registered as refugees (World Bank). The social situation of the country was already serious before the crisis: a third of the population lived below the poverty line, unemployment affected 20% of the population (75% of the unemployed were aged 15 to 24) and the demographic growth rate was very high (3.3% per year). Since the start of the war, the situation has only gotten worse. Essential goods and services, including food, clothing, housing, and fuel, account for about three-fourths of the consumption basket, with food alone accounting for about 40% of consumption. According to the World Food Program, 12.4 million Syrians are now food insecure, almost 60% of the country’s population. Moreover, Syria’s working-age population has significantly shrunk, particularly in its male component; however, the impact of this demographic shock has been partly compensated by an increase in labour force participation.

 
Main Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 0.000.000.000.000.00
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 0.00.00.00.00.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 00000
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 0.00.00.00.00.0
Inflation Rate (%) n/a0.00.00.00.0
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 0.00.00.00.00.0
Current Account (billions USD) 0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Account (in % of GDP) 0.00.00.00.00.0

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021

Main Sectors of Industry

Agriculture represents around 27.8% of Syria’s GDP and is estimated to employ 12% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Agriculture has always been a fragile sector since it directly depends on climate conditions and especially on water scarcity, a key regional factor. Spices, olive and olive oil, cotton, wheat and barley are among the main crops and exports. In 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform reported successful wheat cultivation, yielding 1.093 million tons from 517,000 hectares. Barley cultivation covered 449,000 hectares, producing 409,000 tons. Sweet corn cultivation expanded to 79,000 hectares, yielding 561,000 tons. Additionally, cotton planting covered 7,175 hectares, yielding 15,000 tons. The total number of greenhouses reached 192,286, with 178,593 in the production phase for various vegetables, greens, and bananas. The year also saw significant olive production at 380,604 tons, along with 195,650 tons of grapes, 216,181 tons of apples, and 841,255 tons of citrus fruits.

Industry as a whole accounts for 28.9% of the economy and employs around 22% of the workforce (World Bank). The hydrocarbon sector is essential to the Syrian economy and contributes up to 65% of the country’s exports. Since the start of the conflict, industrial production declined, affected by shortages in fuel and power, limited access to capital, severe destruction of infrastructure, and the relocation of major manufacturing bases. The public sector has a prominent role in the Syrian industry: during 2023, the entirety of the Ministry of Industry's institutions and associated entities achieved sales amounting to SYP 2.772 trillion, with pre-tax profits totalling SYP 350 billion and after-tax profits reaching SYP 250 billion. Syria's public industrial sector is experiencing structural changes, with governmental consideration of various mergers. As an example, in early January 2024, two entities were merged under a newly established General Company for Cement and Building Materials Manufacture and Marketing.

The Syrian tertiary sector encompasses a range of industries including retail, tourism, telecommunications, finance, and healthcare, playing a pivotal role in the country's economy. Overall, the sector accounts for 43.3% of GDP and 65% of total employment. Before the 2011 uprising, tourism stood as one of Syria's most rapidly advancing economic sectors. By 2010, the country welcomed 9.45 million visitors, making tourism the second-largest foreign currency earner after oil exports, contributing approximately 13.7% to the nation's GDP. Despite over a decade of conflict and widespread destruction, the Syrian government is reasserting efforts to position tourism as a significant economic asset. This is evidenced by the construction of new luxury hotels, notably in seaside areas and Aleppo.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 12.5 22.2 65.4
Value Added (in % of GDP) 36.6 22.1 41.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 2.8 -14.8 -3.0

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

Find more information about your business sector on our service Market reports.

 
 

Find out all the exchange rates daily on our service International currency converter.

 

Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:
N/A/100
World Rank:
N/A
Regional Rank:
N/A

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
 

Return to top

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries
Ministry of the Economy
Ministry of Finance (in Arabic)
Statistical Office
Central Bureau of Statistics
Central Bank
Central Bank of Syria (in Arabic)
Stock Exchange
Damascus Securities Exchange
Economic Portals
Library of Congress
Dmoz
Araboo
 

Return to top

Alguma observação sobre este conteúdo? Fale conosco.

 

© eexpand, todos os direitos de reprodução reservados.
Últimas atualizações em March 2024