Seychelles flag Seychelles: Esboço econômico

Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

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The Republic of Seychelles is an archipelago of 115 islands, with three-quarters of the population living on the main island of Mahé. The country’s recent economic performance has been strong, benefiting from the continued growth of the tourism (accounting for nearly three-quarters of GDP) and fisheries sectors. After plummeting due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the travel restrictions that followed (-7.7% in 2020), the country’s GDP returned on a growth path in 2021 (+7.9%) and in 2022 (+10.6%), driven by robust tourism activity. Over the forecast horizon, the IMF projects growth to moderate to 5.4% this year and 4.9% in 2024, although downside risks persist as a worsening of economic prospects in Seychelles’ key tourism markets (Russia, the European Union, and the United Kingdom) would negatively affect the country’s economy.

Amid the recovery, there has been a significant reduction in public spending and an increase in aid for those in need. The primary fiscal deficit decreased to an estimated 1.1% of GDP in 2022, representing a considerable consolidation of 13.6 percentage points in the previous two years. The risk of unsustainable debt has been notably diminished, as the public debt-to-GDP ratio declined to around 69.9% by the end of 2022, a reduction of around 23 percentage points over two years. Over the medium term, the primary balance is anticipated to shift to a surplus as revenue measures will exceed the planned capital expenditure increase, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue declining to 64.6% in 2023 and below 50% by 2026, according to the IMF. Moreover, the government has established a program of targeted, temporary cash transfers to alleviate the burden of rising food and fuel prices for the most vulnerable population, which is scheduled to last until early 2023. Average inflation declined to around 3% in 2022, but it is expected to rise to 4.5% in 2023, reflecting higher import prices and a fading of the cushion provided by the lagged effect of the rupee appreciation. In March 2023, IMF staff and the Seychellois authorities reached a staff-level agreement on a successor 36-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) program to support Seychelles’ economic policies and reforms. According to the agreement - which is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board - Seychelles will have access to SDR 42.36 million (about USD 56.96 million) under the EFF and SDR 34.35 million (about USD 46.19 million) under the RSF.
Since introducing the Seychelles International Business Companies Act in 1994, over 200,000 companies have been registered and new offshore companies continue to register each month. Seychelles is at the forefront of the "blue economy" movement focused on using oceans for economic growth, and improved livelihoods and jobs while maintaining the ocean's ecosystem. Since 2012, more intense structural reforms have been implemented, focusing on fiscal reform, the restructuring of state companies and financial system regulations.

Seychelles has the highest per capita GDP in Africa (estimated at USD 39,662 in 2023 by the IMF), is classified as an upper-middle income country and currently has the highest literacy rate and the best healthcare system in the East Africa region. As per the National Bureau of Statistics, in Q4/2022 the average number of employed persons for all sectors was 54,298 and average earnings were SCR 15,169. This represented an increase of (8.4%) in employment numbers and (1%) in average earnings compared to the same quarter one year earlier. Nevertheless, a 2020 study by the National Bureau of Statistics found that 12% of the population is multi-dimensionally poor and experiencing deprivation related to the standard of living, education, health and employment. Given the limitations on land, labour and the fragile environment, economic growth will have to rely on increases in productivity in the medium term.

 
Indicadores de crescimento 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
PIB (bilhões de USD) 1.982.092.122.272.43
PIB (crescimento anual em %, preço constante) 8.94.23.93.93.9
PIB per capita (USD) 19,98320,89021,09522,37623,734
Dívida Pública (em % do PIB) 61.560.859.055.752.0
Índice de inflação (%) n/a-0.82.03.53.5
Taxa de desemprego (% da população economicamente ativa) 3.03.03.03.03.0
Balanço das transações correntes (bilhões de USD) -0.14-0.14-0.18-0.19-0.21
Balanço das transações correntes (em % do PIB) -7.1-6.9-8.5-8.3-8.8

Fonte: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Nota: (e) Dado estimativo

 
Indicadores monetários 20162017201820192020
Seychelles Rupee (SCR) - Taxa cambial média anual em relação ao 1 ZAR 0.911.031.050.971.07

Fonte: World Bank, 2015

 

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Últimas atualizações em November 2023