Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Pakistan has achieved steady growth since 2013 in the aftermath of a credit facility agreement with the IMF. Economic growth slowed in recent years due to measures taken by the authorities to address macroeconomic imbalances and turned negative in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the IMF's estimates, growth picked up in 2022 reaching 6% of GDP despite disruptions caused by floods, a tight monetary stance, high inflation, and a less conducive global environment; while a strong inflow of remittances (around 10% of GDP, mainly from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE) supported private consumption. The IMF expects the economy to decelerate slightly in 2023 (+2%) before picking up again the following year (+4.2%).

Concerning public finances, the full-year current account deficit is forecast at USD 4.7 billion (1.5% of GDP) in FY23 after USD 17 billion (4.6% of GDP) recorded in FY22 (Fitch Ratings) in light of restrictions on imports and foreign exchange availability, as well as fiscal tightening, higher interest rates and measures to limit energy consumption. The public debt-to-GDP ratio also increased in 2022, reaching 77.8% (from 74.9% one year earlier) but is expected to follow a downward trend over the forecast horizon (71.1% in 2023 and 76% in 2024, according to the IMF). In 2023, Fitch Ratings noted that a default of some sort appears probable following indications that the authorities are considering debt restructuring, while further deterioration in external liquidity and funding conditions could also worsen the situation. Inflation spiked to an estimated 12.1% in 2022 and is projected to further increase to 19.9% in 2023 amid continued rupee depreciation, high prices of petroleum products, and the persistent increase in the rates of agriculture commodities (Pakistan’s imports of food surged by 65% following the floods). The World Bank Report estimated financial needs for post-flood rehabilitation and reconstruction to amount to at least USD 16.3 billion.

Pakistan's unemployment rate stood at around 6.2% in 2022 and is expected to remain stable in the near future. Nevertheless, the number of people no longer actively seeking work is increasing. The level of underemployment remains very high and much of the economy is informal. While the poverty rate has fallen by 40% over the last two decades, it is still high: using the lower-middle-income poverty rate of USD 3.2 per day, in fact, the World Bank calculated that Pakistan's poverty ratio stands at around 40%. The country has a low GDP per capita (PPP), estimated at USD 6,662 in 2022 by the IMF.

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