Palestina: Contexto econômico

Economic Indicators

From 2017 to 2022, the Palestinian economy barely grew, with an average annual real GDP growth of 0.6%. Economic potential has been principally curtailed by the restrictions stemming from the Israeli occupation, which, according to Israel, are in place for security reasons. A combination of depressed aid inflows, COVID-19, low private capital attraction, incomplete reform efforts by the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the internal divide between the West Bank and Gaza, also contributed to economic stagnation. Before the onset of the ongoing conflict, the Palestinian economy was already slowing, especially in Gaza reflecting an Israeli decision restricting Gazan fish sales in the West Bank, since August 2022. Since the conflict began on October 7, activity in Gaza has virtually halted: GDP plummeted by 86% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, additional movement and access restrictions imposed by Israel in the West Bank significantly dampened demand, leading to an estimated 22% contraction of the West Bank’s GDP in Q4 2023. The World Bank's pre-conflict projection of 3.2% real GDP growth for the Palestinian economy in 2023 turned into a 6.4% contraction. The destruction of the economy's productive capacity has been severe and will have a lasting impact. The Palestinian economy is projected to contract further in 2024, by 6.5%. Assuming an end to hostilities and reconstruction efforts beginning in 2025, growth is expected to rebound to 5.5% in 2025. However, GDP levels are not anticipated to recover to the pre-conflict baseline anytime soon (data World Bank).

Concerning public finances, Israel's additional deductions from the revenues it collects on behalf of the PA (clearance revenues) surged from an average of NIS 200 million to NIS 500-600 million per month since October 2023. Israel justifies these deductions as equivalent to the amount the PA spends in Gaza, including salaries to PA civil servants hired before 2007. As a result, clearance revenue transfers decreased by over 50%, leading the PA to decline several monthly transfers of the sharply reduced amount. Prior to deductions, clearance revenues have drastically declined due to the contraction of economic activity and Palestinian trade. Coupled with decreased domestic tax collection, the fiscal deficit ballooned fivefold in 2023 compared to the pre-conflict baseline, reaching USD 516 million, or 3.0% of GDP. In 2024, the World Bank anticipates an increase in clearance revenue transfers to pre-conflict levels, alongside a gradual rise in domestically managed taxes, reflecting a rebound in economic activity. This is expected to drive total revenues up, thus improving the fiscal deficit over the medium term. However, these assumptions are subject to very high levels of uncertainty. According to the latest data available from the IMF, government debt (including arrears to suppliers and the Palestinian Pension Agency) increased from 47.1% of GDP in 2022 to 45.4% at the end of 2023. In Q4 2023, the overall CPI in Gaza surged by 33% compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to supply disruptions resulting from the conflict. Food prices, in particular, spiked by 39% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), attributed to reduced food access, increased transportation costs, and decreased aid volumes. Conversely, the CPI in the West Bank saw a marginal increase of 0.9% q/q over the same period.

The humanitarian situation has worsened in recent years, particularly in Gaza where nearly 80% of residents depend on some form of aid, and was further exacerbated by the recent conflict. Income per capita trends have been highly heterogeneous across the territories. In 2022, the GDP per capita in Gaza was USD 1,253, approximately a quarter of the West Bank's at USD 4,491. Poverty has followed a similar trend, with almost half of the Gaza population living below the upper-middle income poverty line (USD 6.85 2017 PPP a day), compared to less than 10% in the West Bank. The national poverty rate at the international line of USD 6.85 a day was estimated to be around 25.5% in 2022. However, the conflict pushed this up to almost 30% in 2023, with expectations of further increase to around 33.8% in 2024—the highest level in at least 20 years. This corresponds to around 1.8 million people living in poverty. According to the ILO, the Palestinian unemployment rate was projected to soar to 57% during the first quarter of 2024. As of the end of January 2024, some 507,000 jobs have been lost across the Occupied Palestinian Territory due to the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. Additionally, in the West Bank, where economic conditions have been severely impacted, 306,000 jobs - equivalent to over one third of total employment - were lost.

Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Israelian Shekel (ILS) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 ZAR	0.26	0.27	0.27	0.07	0.06

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: May 2024