Líbia: Esboço econômico
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Libya's economy is almost entirely dependent on oil and gas exports. In 2022, the country continued to make significant progress towards institutional, political, economic, financial, and military reunification, which resulted in a strong rebound of oil and energy production, as well as an overall growth of the private sector. However, GDP registered an estimated negative growth of 18.5%. Nevertheless, the country's economy is expected to register positive growth in the coming years, with rates of 17.9% in 2023 and 8% in 2024.
Libyan oil and gas production accounts for nearly 60% of aggregate economic output and more than 90% of fiscal and export revenues. In 2022, oil activity in the country increased, and the government hopes to return to 2010 levels, when production reached its peak at 1.6 million bpd, within the next two or three years. With that, the country's oil-dependent economy is expected to grow. In 2022, the country's inflation rate increased to 5.5%, but it is expected to decrease to a more moderate rate in 2023, at around 4%, and 2024, when it is expected to reach 3%. Although Libya continued implementing economic policy responses to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country still faced a civil war and a divided government.
Continued inflation and low oil production exacerbated poverty in a country already ravaged by civil war and repeated terrorist attacks. The Tripoli government has implemented an active policy of job creation, especially in the public sector, but, according to Ministry of Labor, unemployment rate reaches 20%, and about half of all young people and a quarter of women remain without employment.
Indicadores de crescimento | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
PIB (bilhões de USD) | 37.80 | 40.19 | 43.95 | 46.35 | 47.77 |
PIB (crescimento anual em %, preço constante) | -9.6 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 |
PIB per capita (USD) | 5,577 | 5,872 | 6,357 | 6,639 | 6,774 |
Dívida Pública (em % do PIB) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Índice de inflação (%) | n/a | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Balanço das transações correntes (bilhões de USD) | 12.42 | 8.54 | 11.63 | 12.48 | 10.87 |
Balanço das transações correntes (em % do PIB) | 32.9 | 21.3 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 22.8 |
Fonte: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016
Nota: (e) Dado estimativo
Indicadores monetários | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
Lybian Dinar (LYD) - Taxa cambial média anual em relação ao 1 ZAR | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
Fonte: World Bank, 2015
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