Ilhas Fidji: Contexto econômico

Economic Indicators

Fiji stands as the second-largest economy in the Pacific, marked by advanced industrialization and serving as a hub for re-exports. However, its susceptibility to natural disasters poses a significant constraint on growth. Over the period of 2010-2019, economic growth averaged 3.3%. Despite a full recovery from the pandemic's impact, Fiji now faces the challenge of high debt levels and limited fiscal reserves, as the country relies heavily on tourism. The economy has fully recovered with a 28% cumulative growth during 2022-2023, driven by a swift tourism rebound exceeding 4% above 2019 levels by the end of 2023. Approximately 50% of the growth during 2022 and 2023 came from the accommodation, transport, manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and finance sectors. According to the World Bank, growth is expected to slow down in the medium term, with projections averaging 3.3% in 2025-2026. This moderation will be supported by the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and finance sectors. The deceleration is attributed to the gradual subsiding of the initial post-pandemic demand boost for tourism, coupled with constraints on new source markets due to limited hotel capacity.

The fiscal deficit decreased to 5.1% of GDP in 2023 from an average of 11.6% in 2020-22, driven by high tax buoyancy and reduced capital transfers. Revenue measures introduced in 2023 contributed gains equivalent to around 3.3% of GDP, partially offset by higher public spending. The deficit was financed through external concessional and domestic borrowing. Despite these fiscal dynamics, public debt decreased to 80.6% of GDP in 2023 due to a declining primary balance and robust economic growth. The deficit is expected to narrow to 4.5% of GDP by 2026 due to revenue-generating reforms and expenditure rationalization. The Government intends to review tax expenditure, advance the investment appraisal and selection process, and freeze nominal spending over the medium term. Public debt is projected to hover around 80% by 2026. According to the World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis 2024, public debt is assessed as sustainable but subject to significant risks. Inflation in Fiji has historically remained lower compared to global levels due to price controls and various mitigation measures. However, the consolidation of 9% and 15% VAT rates in August 2023, alongside increased import prices and tariff rates, resulted in a 5.1% year-on-year headline inflation in December, the highest in the last decade. Subsequently, it decreased to 3.6% in January 2024. Headline inflation is forecasted to converge towards 3% over the medium term as global inflationary pressures diminish (World Bank).

According to figures from the World Bank, GDP per capita (PPP) reached USD 14,632 in 2022 and the growth outlook is anticipated to decrease poverty to below pre-pandemic levels, reaching 49.9% in 2024. At the end of 2023, the World Bank estimated unemployment at 4.2%, down from 1.6% one year earlier.

Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Fiji Dollar (FJD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 ZAR	0.14	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.13

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: May 2024