Grécia: Contexto político-econômico
Due to Greece's heavy reliance on tourism and the hospitality industry, the country was among the most severely hit by the Covid-19-induced crisis. However, the Greek economy rebounded strongly and GDP reached its pre-pandemic level already in the second half of 2021. Economic activity grew by 2.3% year-on-year in 2024, mainly driven by domestic demand, though net exports held back growth. Minimum wage hikes boosted private consumption, especially for lower-income households with higher consumption rates. Equipment investment accelerated alongside strong corporate credit growth, while a rise in imports and slow export growth led to a decline in net exports. The IMF expects real GDP growth to stay strong at 2.1% in 2025 before moderating in the medium term. Investment will remain a key driver, supported by NGEU-funded projects, while private consumption growth should stay robust, driven by positive employment and income growth.
Concerning public finances, the headline deficit decreased from 1.3% of GDP in 2023 to 0.6% of GDP in 2024, reflecting an increase in the primary surplus from 2.1% of GDP in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024. This decline was largely due to slow growth in current expenditure and higher income tax revenues. In 2025, the headline deficit is expected to further reduce to 0.1% of GDP, mainly driven by lower interest expenditure due to declining short-term interest rates. The primary surplus is projected to remain high at around 2.5% of GDP in 2025, as reduced revenue from an additional cut in social security contributions is largely offset by revenue gains from reforms targeting tax evasion and improving compliance. By the end of 2024, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to have fallen by over 50 percentage points from its 2020 peak (to around 159%), driven by strong growth, high inflation, and significant fiscal consolidation. The banking system has strengthened its resilience with improved asset quality and capital adequacy. Asset quality in systemically important banks continued to improve, with the NPL ratio falling to around 3% in Q3 2024, aided by a government-backed securitisation framework. Banks maintained high profits, which, along with capital instrument issuances, enhanced capital adequacy, though there is still potential for further strengthening of voluntary capital buffers (IMF). Disinflation is progressing gradually, with headline and core inflation at 2.9% and 3.4% (y/y) at the end of 2024, respectively, amid ongoing services inflation and wage growth. With global energy prices stabilising, headline inflation is expected to continue its downward trend, while core inflation is likely to remain more persistent due to services inflation and wage growth (IMF).
The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% (seasonally adjusted) in Q3 2024, the lowest since 2009, while the vacancy rate increased, indicating labor shortages in sectors such as construction, tourism-related services, and high-skill industries. The labour force participation rate has gradually risen but remains one of the lowest in the EU, particularly for women. According to the latest data by Eurostat, Greece’s GDP per capita is one-third lower than the EU average (estimated at USD 43,800 in 2024 by the IMF – PPP).
Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
GDP (billions USD) | 238.28 | 252.73 | 265.17 | 275.85 | 285.00 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 22,880 | 24,342 | 25,616 | 26,688 | 27,614 |
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.4 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 168.9 | 159.0 | 152.9 | 149.1 | 145.4 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 11.1 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
Current Account (billions USD) | -16.37 | -16.48 | -13.98 | -13.01 | -11.68 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | -6.9 | -6.5 | -5.3 | -4.7 | -4.1 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Traditionally, Greece's economy has been based on agriculture, and although nowadays the sector represents only 3.3% of GDP and employs 11% of the labour force, these shares are among the highest in the EU (World Bank, latest data available). The country has an agricultural area of around 5,867k hectares and a forest area of 3,901k hectares (FAO). The main crops are tobacco (the third-largest European producer) and cotton. Olives - many of which are used to produce olive oil - are the country's most renowned export crop. Greece has an important sheepherding industry and the fishing sector is well developed in the coastal regions (65% of domestic production of fishery products comes from aquaculture, while the remaining 35% from fishing). Greek agricultural output has declined by 0.3% annually over the past 30 years. According to data from Eurostat, the volume of agricultural output in Greece in 2023 was down by 16% compared to the previous year, while production was valued at nearly EUR 12.9 billion, down 3% from 2022. Including agricultural services and secondary activities, total production topped EUR 14 billion, 1.4% lower than in 2022. The sector contributed EUR 7 billion to GDP in 2023.
As a result of the country's diversification of the economy, industry has replaced agriculture as the second source of income after services, accounting for 15.3% of GDP and employing 16% of the labour force. However, its share was higher before the economic crisis of 2007 (above 20%). Manufacturing is estimated to account for 9% of GDP (World Bank). The main sectors are electronics, transport equipment, clothing manufacturing and construction. Moreover, Greece has the largest maritime fleet in the world. According to data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, industrial output increased by 6.7% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024.
The service sector accounts for 68.6% of GDP and employs 73% of the labour force. Tourism provides an essential source of income and on its own contributes to almost one-fifth of GDP (the primary sector of contribution to the national economy). The sector directly employs just below 400,000 people, accounting for 10% of total employment in the country. Greek tourism, including domestic travel and investments, contributed 13% to GDP (EUR 28.5 billion) in 2023, according to the Greek Tourism Confederation. Inbound tourism grew 4% from 2019, reaching 32.7 million travellers, while cruise passenger arrivals rose 26% to 3.3 million. Total international arrivals hit 36 million, a 6% increase from 2019. Tourism receipts (excluding cruises) reached a record EUR 19.8 billion, up 12% from 2019. Cruise revenues surged 70% to EUR 847 million. Concerning the banking sector, in 2023, Greek banks reported post-tax profits of EUR 3.8 billion, up from EUR 3.4 billion in 2022. Their Return on Assets (RoA) and Return on Equity (RoE) reached 1.2% and 12.0%, exceeding the euro area average (data European Banking Federation).
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 11.4 | 15.3 | 73.4 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 3.9 | 16.8 | 67.1 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | 1.3 | 4.2 | 6.3 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2021-2025
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