Cazaquistão flag Cazaquistão: Esboço econômico

Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

Kazakhstan's economic growth is largely based on gas and oil revenues, accounting for around 35% of GDP and 75% of exports. The estimated GDP growth for 2023 stood at 4.6%, fueled by growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors, with the impact of the conflict in Ukraine remaining contained. Strong credit growth has also supported activity. According to the IMF, anticipated growth in 2024 is projected to moderate within an uncertain economic climate, expected to slow to 3.1% primarily due to delays in the Tengiz oil field expansion. Over the medium term, non-oil GDP growth is set to stabilize at around 3.5%. Downside risks encompass potential oil price declines, disruptions in oil exports, and sluggish growth among trading partners. Additionally, spillovers from the conflict in Ukraine and geopolitical fragmentation, including secondary sanctions, pose threats to activity and investor confidence.

In 2023, the fiscal stance has loosened, witnessing notable rises in investment spending, particularly directed towards transport and energy infrastructure, alongside increased social spending. The consolidated budget deficit was estimated at 1% of GDP, with expected deficits of 1.3% this year and 1.1% in 2025 (IMF). As of 2023, the general government debt accounted for 23.4% of GDP, representing a credit strength. The IMF foresees the ratio to remain stable over the forecast horizon. The government's dedication to fiscal consolidation is encouraging and should be reinforced by adopting more conservative economic forecasts and implementing precise reform strategies. Achieving a reduction in the non-oil deficit to 5% of GDP by 2030 would bolster disinflation efforts and safeguard substantial fiscal reserves (IMF). Inflation, which reached its peak at 21% in February, decreased over the course of the year, averaging 15% by the conclusion of 2023. It is forecasted to gradually ease, reaching 6.7% by 2025.

Unemployment rate remained stable at 4.8% in 2023. The growth of real wages has stabilized after experiencing sharp increases over the past two years. According to IMF estimates, unemployment should remain stable over the projected period. The World Bank's Kazakhstan Economic Update estimates that the country's poverty rate has increased to 12-14% in 2022 from a baseline of 6% in 2016. The government has implemented a substantial amount of direct support to businesses through tax deferrals and subsidized loans, and financial support to poor households and affected individuals.

 
Indicadores de crescimento 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
PIB (bilhões de USD) 225.53260.51296.74312.99327.31
PIB (crescimento anual em %, preço constante) 3.35.13.15.62.2
PIB per capita (USD) 11,48613,11714,77815,42615,964
Saldo do Balanço de Pagamentos (em % do PIB) 0.1-1.7-2.5-2.0-2.1
Dívida Pública (em % do PIB) 23.523.024.226.529.2
Índice de inflação (%) 15.014.68.77.06.1
Taxa de desemprego (% da população economicamente ativa) 4.94.84.84.84.8
Balanço das transações correntes (bilhões de USD) 7.08-9.80-13.29-8.37-10.47
Balanço das transações correntes (em % do PIB) 3.1-3.8-4.5-2.7-3.2

Fonte: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Nota: (e) Dado estimativo

 
Indicadores monetários 20162017201820192020
Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT) - Taxa cambial média anual em relação ao 1 ZAR 23.2624.5126.0126.5825.07

Fonte: World Bank, 2015

 

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