Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Tunisia was deeply impacted by the Jasmine Revolution of 2011 that ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and the country has never recovered economically. The situation was exacerbated by the health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the political crises that the country has been experiencing in recent years. According to IMF estimates, economic growth stood at 2.2% in 2022, as the war in Ukraine and rising international commodity prices worsened the existing vulnerabilities of Tunisia’s economy, contributing to a sharp increase in the trade deficit. For 2023, the IMF expects growth to further decelerate to 1.6%, before picking up marginally in 2024 (2.1%).

Tunisia received financial assistance from several international organizations, such as the African Development Bank, the IMF, and the European Union (which disbursed EUR 600 million in loans under the Macro-Financial Assistance emergency support programme). In October 2022, the IMF and the Tunisian authorities have reached a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia's economic policies with a 48-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility of about USD 1.9 billion, in an effort to restore Tunisia’s external and fiscal stability. In fact, the country's public finances have suffered in recent years, with the government deficit reaching 6.8% of GDP in 2022 also due to subsidy spending for energy and food (that accounted for 2.8% and 0.4% of GDP respectively, according to the World Bank). Similarly, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 88.8% (from 81.8% one year earlier) and is expected to increase marginally in 2023, to 89.2% as per the IMF forecast. The majority of the high external debt is public or public-guaranteed, which may cause doubts about the country’s ability to service its debt. Inflationary pressures increased significantly, mainly from global markets and higher administered prices, resulting in an overall rate of 8.1% in 2022. The Central Bank of Tunisia raised its policy rate by 75 basis points by the end of the year, to 8%, in its third increase of 2022; nevertheless, the IMF expects the inflation rate to remain high over the forecast horizon, at 8.5% this year and 7.9% in 2024. The pressure on the dinar against the dollar increased but the level of foreign exchange reserves has remained stable. Among the policies necessary to restore macroeconomic stability the IMF points to a conscientious reduction of the fiscal deficit through equitable taxation reform, strict control over the public sector wage bill, better-targeted subsidies, and deep reforms of state-owned enterprises.

Tunisia is afflicted by increasing economic disparities that favour its coastal regions, which account for more than 80% of urban areas and 90% of overall employment. The highest poverty rates are concentrated in rural areas, especially those in the northwest and southwest of the country (often exceeding 33%). Contrarily, the greater Tunis area shows the lowest values (Carnegie). According to the latest figures from the National Statistics Institute (INS), as of Q3/2022, the unemployment rate stood at 15.3%; nevertheless, youth unemployment – at 37.8% - was particularly high.

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