The economic context of Tunisia

Economic Indicators

Tunisia was deeply impacted by the Jasmine Revolution of 2011 that ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and the country has never recovered economically ever since. The situation was exacerbated by the health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the political crises that the country has been experiencing in recent years. After a moderate rebound in 2021 (4.3%) and in 2022 (2.7%), the economy stalled in 2023 (0% growth) and gained momentum in 2024 (+1.4% on an annual basis), although at a slower pace than that expected by the Central Bank. The country’s economic outlook remains muted in the short and medium term. Real GDP growth is forecast at 1.6% for 2025, while medium-term growth is expected to stay sluggish, averaging below 1.5% of GDP (IMF).

Despite lower commodity prices and reduced subsidy costs, public finances remained strained in 2024 amid stalled expenditure reforms and weak growth. The fiscal deficit fell to an estimated 6% of GDP in 2024 (from 6.7% in 2023) as subsidies and wages were contained, while tax revenues rose moderately. Public debt climbed to 83.7% of GDP in 2024 (from 67.8% in 2019), with gross financing needs rising to 16.1% of GDP, mainly due to external debt service. Limited access to international markets pushed authorities to rely more on domestic financing, as FDI—despite a 26.7% increase in early 2024—covered less than a quarter of external obligations. The budget remains rigid and exposed to external shocks. Fitch Ratings estimate payroll, interest, and subsidies will consume 87% of total revenue (excluding grants) in 2026, down from 95% in 2024. Subsidy costs remain sensitive to global price fluctuations. Tunisia’s inflation slowed to 7% in 2024, down from 9.3% in 2023, according to the National Institute of Statistics. The easing was driven by reduced pressure on food prices, though they still rose by 7.2% during the year. Manufactured goods prices rose 6.1%, driven by clothing and footwear (+9.7%) and cleaning products (+7.8%). Services inflation reached 5.4%, led by restaurants, cafes, and hotels at 11.7%. The IMF forecasts inflation to remain sticky over the forecast horizon, at 6.7%. Among the policies necessary to restore macroeconomic stability the IMF points to a conscientious reduction of the fiscal deficit through equitable taxation reform, strict control over the public sector wage bill, better-targeted subsidies, and deep reforms of state-owned enterprises.

Tunisia is afflicted by increasing economic disparities that favour its coastal regions, which account for more than 80% of urban areas and 90% of overall employment. The highest poverty rates are concentrated in rural areas, especially those in the northwest and southwest of the country (often exceeding 33%). Contrarily, the greater Tunis area shows the lowest values (Carnegie). Poverty at the Upper-Middle Income Poverty Line (USD 6.85/day in 2017 PPP) fell to 15.7% in 2024 (from 15.9% in 2023) and is projected to drop to 14.9% by 2026, according to the World Bank. According to the latest figures from the National Statistics Institute (INS), as of Q3/2024, the unemployment rate stood at 16%; nevertheless, youth unemployment – at 40.5% - was particularly high. By gender, the unemployment rate remains significantly higher for women (22.1%) than for men (13.3%).

Main Sectors of Industry

Agriculture is a key sector of the Tunisian economy, accounting for 9.5% of GDP and employing 13% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). The country has 9.7 million ha of agricultural land, equivalent to 62% of its total land area (FAO). An improvement in production methods in recent years has allowed the sector to develop and modernise (cultivation of olive trees, fruit trees and palm trees) while enabling the country to reach a level of food sufficiency. Organic farming is also booming, with Tunisia being one of the most productive countries in Africa. Olive oil accounts for the largest share of agricultural exports, followed by dates, olives and fresh fruits. Despite years of drought, Tunisia's agricultural exports grew in 2024. According to data from Onagri, revenue reached USD 2.6 billion, up 15.8% from USD 2.2 billion in 2023, driven by higher international prices despite stable export volumes. Olive oil exports brought in USD 1.5 billion, up 27%, while dates generated USD 299 million (+20%) and citrus USD 6.2 million (+55.5%). Export prices rose 29.3% for olive oil, 25.1% for citrus, 2.1% for dates, and 0.9% for seafood.

Industry represents 23.5% of the GDP and employs one-third of the active population. The country's industrial sectors are predominantly export-oriented. Among the sectors in decline, are the leather and shoe industry, paper, cardboard, plastic, and wood. The chemicals, textiles and clothing sectors have been growing in recent years; however, the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic impacted especially the textile and clothing sector and the mechanical and electrical engineering sub-sectors, which are still recovering. Overall, the manufacturing sector is estimated to account for 15% of GDP (World Bank) and is strongly connected to European production chains. According to Tunisia's National Observatory of Energy and Mines, oil production fell by 13% in 2024. Daily crude output dropped to 28,800 barrels, down from 33,100 in 2023, while total production declined to 1.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) from 1.6 million in the previous year.

The local economy is largely orientated towards services, which account for 62.1% of the GDP, including the booming sectors of ICT (information and communication technologies) and tourism. Professional training and research are both rising sectors. The services sector as a whole employs 53.8% of the country's workforce. The tourism industry is also important: 2024 was a record year for the sector, with revenues reaching USD 2.3 billion, up 7.8% from the previous year (official figures). According to Fitch Ratings, Tunisian banks remained resilient despite tough conditions, with rising interest rates boosting profitability. Return on equity increased to 10.8% in 2023 (up from 9.1% in 2022), while weak credit growth helped lift the capital adequacy ratio by 50bp to 14.5%.

 

Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector	Agriculture	Industry	Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment)	12.8	33.3	53.8
Value Added (in % of GDP)	9.5	23.5	62.1
Value Added (Annual % Change)	-16.1	-1.0	2.7

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:

56,6/100

World Rank:

119

Regional Rank:

10

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 

Business environment ranking

Definition

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:

5.12/10

World Rank:

69/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

List of Ministries
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of the Economy and Planning
Ministry of Trade

Statistical Office

National Statistics Institute (INS)

Central Bank

Central Bank of Tunisia

Stock Exchange

Tunis Stock Exchange

Economic Portals

Tunisia news