Moldova flag Moldova: Economic outline

Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Moldova's economic performance has been relatively strong over the past few years but has been repeatedly hindered by the unfavourable global situation or by poor climatic conditions. After Moldova's economy collapsed due to the COVID-19 outbreak, GDP went back to its pre-pandemic level in 2021. According to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, In January-September 2022, the country’s GDP amounted to MDL 197,8 billion, decreasing in real terms by 4.1% compared to the same period one year earlier. In sectoral terms, agriculture decreased by 1.5%, construction by 1.1%, real estate by 0.8%, and manufacturing by 0.7%. For the year as a whole, the IMF estimated GDP growth to be stagnant (0%). As both the internal and external contexts improve, growth is expected to pick up this year (2.3%) before accelerating further in 2024 (5.8%).

Concerning public finances, the debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 36% in 2022 (from 33.1% one year earlier) and is expected to follow an upward trend over the forecast horizon, reaching 38.3% in 2023 and 41.7% in 2024 according to the IMF. Governmental figures show that the general budget was negative by 5.4% of GDP last year, whereas the proposed 2023 budget foresees a rise in the deficit, projected at around 6% of GDP. Demand-side drivers added to the significant supply-side factors that have shaped inflation over the past year: although it slowed in the last quarter of 2022, the average annual inflation rate was estimated at 28.5% by the IMF. The Central Bank decided to cut the monetary policy rate by 1.5pp to 20% on December 5, stating that the monetary policy relaxation would continue if future inflation data confirm its expectations. For 2023, the IMF forecasts inflation to ease to 13.8%, with a more consistent decrease expected for 2024 (5%). Over the longer term, Moldova's economy still has to face many challenges, including corruption, political uncertainty, weak administrative capacity, energy import dependence, Russian political and economic pressure, heavy dependence on agricultural exports, and unresolved separatism in Moldova's Transnistria region.

The country’s unemployment rate is relatively stable, hovering around 3.5%; however, the jobless rate is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Moldova remains the poorest country in Europe and has one of the lowest productivity levels: in 2022, the GDP per capita was estimated at USD 16,483 by the IMF, 70% lower than the European Union’s average.

 
Main Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 14.5516.0017.1617.9419.06
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) -5.02.04.35.05.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 5,7266,4117,0027,4498,059
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 32.635.138.437.436.9
Inflation Rate (%) n/a13.35.05.05.0
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 4.64.94.24.24.2
Current Account (billions USD) -2.09-1.94-1.86-1.78-1.79
Current Account (in % of GDP) -14.4-12.1-10.9-9.9-9.4

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Note: (e) Estimated Data

 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Moldovan Leu (MDL) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 ZAR 1.351.391.271.221.05

Source: World Bank, 2015

 

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Latest Update: December 2023